A historic agreement was signed in Paris in 2015 that aimed at reining in greenhouse gas emissions to levels regarded as safe.
But so far, these efforts haven’t paid off, with emissions continuing to rise. This is because the Amazon rainforest, by absorbing huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, is such a key player in averting this crisis.
Yet scientists warn that decades of deforestation and the growing impacts of climate change have made the future of the Amazon itself deeply uncertain. The state of Pará, which has Belém as its capital, is the site of the highest level of forest destruction in the entire Amazon.
Brazil, which contains about 60% of the Amazon, said it will push for a new agreement to strengthen protection of tropical rainforests. Most tropical rainforests line the equator. The area is dominated by tall, evergreen trees.
A Haven for Rare Species
The Amazon is not all rainforest; it also includes swamps and savannas. It covers more than 6.7 million square kilometers, a tract of land twice the size of India and one of the most biodiverse places on Earth.
-At least 40,000 plant species
-427 mammal species
-1,300 bird species, of which are the harpy eagle and toucan
-378 reptile species, from green iguanas to black caimans
-More than 400 species of amphibians, which include dart poison frogs and smooth-sided toads
-It hosts nearly 3,000 species of freshwater fish, including piranhas and the giant arapaima that weighs up to 200 kilograms.
Many of these species are found nowhere else in the world. Hundreds of indigenous communities also call this region their home.
The Amazon River is the largest freshwater source on Earth, with more than 1,100 tributaries, and its contribution to the Atlantic Ocean provides much-needed nourishment to overall ocean currents. The rainforest is a great carbon sink. But in some areas, due to deforestation and land degradation, it has been emitting more carbon dioxide than absorbed.
The Amazon also provides food, medicines, and raw materials. Mining—especially for gold—has expanded, and the region could become a major producer of oil and gas. Large-scale logging has already made it a major supplier of timber.
What is happening in the Amazon?
Rising temperatures and long-term droughts have gravely upended the natural balance of the rainforest. Once humid, the currently arid forest is now more prone to fires. For instance, 41,463 fire hotspots were recorded by Brazil’s space agency INPE in the Brazilian Amazon this September 2024, marking the highest number for this month since 2010.
Paulo Brando, Associate Professor at the Ecosystem Carbon Capture program at Yale University, said: “We are seeing a steady increase in droughts and fires, which are driving widespread degradation across the Amazon. In many areas, this degradation has become a major threat.”
-The Impact on “Flying Rivers”
The Amazon generates its own weather systems. Its forests circulate moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, creating “flying rivers”—vast streams of water vapor in the sky. First, these atmospheric rivers bring rain to the eastern Amazon near the Atlantic. Then, through evapotranspiration, moisture rises from the land and trees, shifting westward to fall once more across the rainforest.
This cycle has sustained the Amazon for millennia.
But experts say this balance is breaking down. Deforested and degraded areas no longer circulate moisture well, reducing the amount of vapor returning into the atmosphere.
Matt Finer of Amazon Conservation, co-author of a recent report on flying rivers, explains: “The small weather systems that once connected the entire Amazon are now fractured.” The worst impacts will be felt in the western Amazon–southern Peru and northern Bolivia–which depend on moisture carried from Brazil’s forests. If those forests collapse, the flying rivers will fail, leaving western Amazonia dry.
The problem is most severe during the dry season from June to November.
A Tipping Point
The rainforest was once resilient against fires, but reduced rainfall has weakened its defenses. Some researchers worry that the Amazon is nearing an irreversible tipping point, beyond which it will never recover. Matt Finer warns: “We are already seeing early signs of this critical shift in parts of the Amazon.”
Erika Berenguer, Senior Research Associate at Oxford University’s Ecosystems Lab, says: “This is a very slow process, but it is happening in specific regions, and the threat is growing.”
Water Crisis
Reduced moisture circulation not only influences the forest but also the Amazon’s rivers. In recent years, the water levels in many rivers have fallen to record lows. This basin saw its worst drought in 45 years in 2023.
The drought in 2023 and early 2024 was partly driven by El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures rise in the eastern Pacific and disrupt rainfall patterns around the world, especially in South America.
Deforestation and climate stress are not the only threats: illegal mining, of gold in particular, has caused widespread devastation.
Erika Berenguer says: “Mining for rare earth minerals has now begun in the region.” These will be crucially important minerals in the modern economies that manufacture electric vehicles, wind turbines, mobile phones, and satellites.
Though mining does not bring about forest clearing on a large scale, as logging does, it pollutes rivers, soils, and trees with toxic chemicals like mercury that poison both wildlife and humans. Experts warn that illegal mining increasingly links to organized crime networks including arms traffickers.
Matt Finer says, “Criminal networks now span the entire Amazon, making it extremely difficult for authorities to maintain control on the ground.” The Amazon spans across eight countries with their own laws and systems of enforcement; this makes cross-border crime particularly hard to handle.
Adding to the concern, there have been vast hydrocarbon reserves discovered beneath the forest. Between 2022 and 2024, InfoAmazonia reported discoveries equivalent to 5.3 billion barrels of oil—nearly one-fifth of all newly found reserves worldwide. This could turn the region into a new hub for the fossil fuel industry.
Even prior to these findings, the Science Panel for the Amazon warned that deforestation threatened more than 10,000 plant and animal species with extinction.
Importance beyond the region Despite all the threats, the Amazon still works as a powerful carbon sink, absorbing enormous amounts of carbon dioxide. By 2022, according to the Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program, the Amazon stored about 71.5 billion metric tons of carbon-equivalent to two years of global CO2 emissions at 2022 levels.
Yet scientists say that deforestation and climate change may turn more areas of the forest into net carbon emitters. They say that losing the Amazon is losing the fight against climate change. Tropical forests also create cloud layers, which ultimately reflect sunlight back to space, cooling the planet. Brazilian forest scientist Tasso Azevedo explains:
“Just as tropical forests like the Amazon absorb carbon to limit warming, they also have the capacity to cool the planet. That’s why the Amazon is like a giant air conditioner for our warming world.” The Amazon’s massive freshwater flow also influences global climate.
Scientists warn that changes in this flow could disrupt Atlantic Ocean currents, with cascading effects on regional and global weather systems.
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