Each year from June to September, a heavy band of rain makes its way from India’s southwest coast to its northeastern borders, quenching farmers’ thirsty fields.
India’s monsoon season is arguably the single most important weather phenomenon for the country, and a good monsoon can noticeably boost the nation’s economy and the livelihoods of its 120 million farmers. But human-caused climate change is making the rainfall more erratic, making it difficult for farmers to plant, grow and harvest crops on their rain-fed fields.
“Either it rains too much within a short time or it doesn’t rain at all,” said Vijay Jawandhia, a 77-year-old farmer in western Maharashtra state. Jawandhia grows cotton, soya bean and various other crops that require a relatively cool climate and constant irrigation for the first few weeks after sowing. “We planted our cotton seeds after a good monsoon was predicted but it rained just two days and stopped after, so now we’re worried our crops will fail again.”
The Indian Meteorological Department had predicted good rainfall from the monsoon clouds earlier this year, but extreme heat in northern India stalled the rain’s progress. The agency revised its predictions in June, saying the rainfall this year will be less than previously expected.
Many are looking for ways to adapt to this new, unpredictable reality. Experts suggest growing crops that need less water, better and more localized forecasting methods and protection against unexpected weather. But changing centuries-old ways of tending to the land won’t be an easy task. India typically has two monsoons: one from June to September moving southwest to northeast, and another from October to December going the opposite direction.
But with more planet-warming gases in the air, the rain now only loosely follows this pattern. This is because the warmer air can hold more moisture from the Indian Ocean, and that rain then gets dumped all at once. It means the monsoon is punctuated with intense flooding and dry spells, rather than sustained rain throughout.
“When it rains now, it rains heavily,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a retired senior official at India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences. Rajeevan has tracked the monsoons for decades, and has noticed “the number of rainy days is decreasing even though the total amount of seasonal rainfall has remained the same for the last century or so.”
Landslides and flooding are increasing, he said, alongside high temperatures and longer periods of drought that are adding to farmer’s woes.
The flooding can also result in death and economic losses, such as the hundreds killed and the over $1.42 billion in damages in Himachal Pradesh in 2023 because of heavy monsoon rains.
Rajeevan added that hydropower resources that generate large amounts of electricity are also built with sustained rains in mind, and extreme rain and floods can lead to health issues such as increased cases of typhoid, cholera and malaria.
The erratic rain is a significant blow to their livelihood.
Maharashtra has witnessed thousands of farmers dying by suicide that many say is a result of agriculture-related debt. “Our region has become infamous for this,” said Jawandhia, the farmer. (AP)
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